Plan for Reliability
- SMMPA’s 2024 IRP

Every three years, SMMPA develops an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). This plan lays out how we will balance resources to forecasted load while adhering to the MISO capacity construct, Minnesota’s carbon-free standard, and ensuring reliable service for members over the next 15 years. In November 2024, the Agency filed the plan with the Public Utilities Commission for a study period of 2025 to 2039. This is the Agency's first IRP to contemplate the State's new carbon-free standard, where “electric utilities must generate or procure sufficient electricity generated from a carbon-free energy technology to provide the electric utility's retail customers in Minnesota.”

A Team Effort

Over the course of eight months in 2024, seven key team members and additional support staff refined the Agency’s IRP. Our process began with a load forecast. Utilizing Aurora modeling software, staff studied seven separate scenarios with unique assumptions to determine an optimized generating resource expansion case. Out of these scenario model runs, staff determined the preferred plan that meets all Minnesota requirements, MISO resource adequacy requirements, and SMMPA’s internal goals. 

Charting the Course

Our previous IRP reflected a goal to make our power supply 80% carbon free by 2030, exceeding Minnesota’s new carbon-free standard of 60% in 2030.   While there have been significant price increases in solar projects since the Agency’s last IRP, the Board decided to stay the course for this IRP iteration to allow for a clearer picture during the next IRP, when specific renewable projects will need to be added to the Agency’s resource portfolio.  There have also been significant MISO capacity rule changes since the last IRP that continue to impact the accreditation value of all resources, but in particular solar and wind resources.    

Road to Approval

The Public Utilities Commission (PUC) began their review of SMMPA’s 2024 IRP at the end of November 2024. The Department of Commerce conducted the initial evaluation, giving the Agency until the end of May to answer its questions. Moving into June, the Department will finalize its analysis of the IRP and make a recommendation to the commission to accept it, request additional information, or set other requirements. The PUC will consider comments from the Department of Commerce, SMMPA and other intervenors involved in the process to ultimately make their decision whether to accept the IRP. 

Uncertainty

If one word could label the backdrop to our 2024 IRP, it’s uncertainty. Uncertainty about wholesale energy market and fuels pricing, implementation of the state’s carbon-free standard, MISO capacity accreditation rules, tariffs and the supply chain. Much of the work in developing the 2024 IRP was centered around Minnesota’s carbon-free standard, and these rules are still being developed by the Public Utilities Commission.

We are grateful for our excellent team and outside partners who helped put together SMMPA’s 2024 IRP. As we await the PUC’s feedback, we continue to serve our members with reliable power and energy as we continue to plan for the future.